Hello friend,

Every week, Theory of Change breaks down a helpful framework and shows how you—as a journalist, social entrepreneur, changemaker, or nonprofit leader—can use that framework to build an organisation of purpose. This edition takes less than 4 minutes to read.

Last week, I deliberately avoided mentioning the elephant in the room — the U.S. election. There was already plenty of commentary, so I held off on adding my lukewarm take. But reflecting on it, I keep coming back to my own experience in the whirlwind of the 2016 election.

In early 2016, in my role at Storyful, I was meeting in Washington DC with senior political representatives from both sides of the aisle, working to build nonpartisan tools that could support a deeper understanding of voter sentiment. Later that year, I moved into the nonprofit sector and witnessed firsthand a frankly unseemly scramble for funding: nonprofits shamelessly competing to access suddenly reallocated dollars from funders who were often ill-prepared to address the root issues. It wasn’t pretty — and, frankly, it wasn’t effective.

Today, I see echoes of the same cycle.

Here’s the thing: if you’re just now adapting your strategy to address what happened last week, you’re already too late. Tackling long-term, systemic issues requires a long-term, systemic approach, the kind that spans years, even decades.

However, although the best time to start was decades ago; the second-best time is now. And this is where the Three Horizons framework comes in. With this week’s newsletter, I want to show you how this framework can help you futureproof your organisation’s work.

Preamble over. Let’s get into it.

🌈 EVENT HORIZON 🌈

What is it?

Three Horizons is a McKinsey framework, which usually means it’s not particularly relevant for nonprofits (focusing as they often do on "killing" the competition and whatnot). But I’ve adapted it to help nonprofits think strategically about the long term, especially in environments where civic space may be closing, regulatory obstacles increasing, or information ecosystems are compromised by misinformation.

The Three Horizons framework structures strategic planning across three timeframes, helping organisations balance immediate actions with long-term goals in an era of shifting political conditions.

When to use it

If your organisation faces mounting political, legal, or information threats — or if you anticipate these challenges arising — the Three Horizons framework provides a practical structure to help you plan for near-term adjustments and long-term transformations. Use it during annual reviews, strategic planning sessions, or any time you’re evaluating organisational resilience.

How it works

By focusing on different timeframes, the framework ensures that organisations address current challenges (Horizon 1) while exploring adaptable mid-term approaches (Horizon 2) and visionary strategies for long-term survival and impact (Horizon 3). 

Horizon 1: Short-Term Programmes (1–3 Years)

• Focus: Fortify and adapt core programmes to maintain relevance and impact in the current landscape.

• Goals: Address immediate challenges from regulatory shifts or misinformation, strengthen essential programmes, and establish a defensive stance for your mission.

• Application: Horizon 1 projects are tactical adjustments to current programmes that ensure short-term viability. In closed or shrinking civic spaces, this could mean re-evaluating partnerships, securing contingency funding, or pivoting messaging to emphasise areas that remain viable or compliant.

• Example: A human rights nonprofit might expand digital security training for staff and partners to counter surveillance risks and secure private communication.

Horizon 2: Mid-Term Strategic Initiatives (2–5 Years)

• Focus: Prepare to operate effectively in an increasingly restrictive or altered landscape by strategically adapting programmes, partnerships, and tactics.

• Goals: Introduce adaptable initiatives that can evolve with legal or social constraints, while exploring approaches that may be less vulnerable to regulatory shifts.

• Application: Horizon 2 initiatives often draw from adjacent fields or international best practices to ensure resilience. For instance, organisations could experiment with decentralised models, anonymous reporting platforms, or collaborations with trusted media outlets to protect information flow and ensure continuity even if restrictions tighten.

• Example: An investigative journalism nonprofit might invest in partnerships with grassroots networks, ensuring news distribution through trusted local channels in case of social media clampdowns or prohibitive information laws.

Horizon 3: Long-Term Visionary Adaptations (5–12 Years)

• Focus: Design long-term strategies to operate in a potentially hostile or vastly different political and informational environment.

• Goals: Build visionary, mission-aligned approaches that anticipate future regulatory and political trends, allowing your nonprofit to adapt proactively.

• Application: Horizon 3 initiatives might involve envisioning entirely new models of programme delivery or international partnerships that safeguard your mission even in a restricted civic space. Long-term solutions could include embedding services in international coalitions, creating decentralised governance models, or securing diverse, cross-border funding sources that minimise local risks.

• Example: A nonprofit focused on freedom of speech might develop a long-term strategy to decentralise or devolve its reliance on its content platforms, using networks that resist censorship or capture.

Get started

Pull together your team to think about the different horizons and scenarios (the more the merrier - diversity of thought is key here). Beyond simple ideation, you can of course go deeper:

• Horizon 1 is a great place to reinforce internal skills in risk management, legal compliance, and crisis communications to protect and empower your organisation.

• Engage your team in planning sessions that simulate potential political or regulatory changes. Ideate around using Horizon 2 projects as a buffer.

• Collaborate with international organisations, peer nonprofits, and decentralised networks to create shared knowledge and resources that will withstand political shifts and build a collective Horizon 3.

🔮 FUTUREPROOFING 🔮 

When strategic planning, your organisation should think about resilience to these critical trends:

• Tectonic media shifts: The capture and partisanisation of media rise poses risks to organisational credibility. By fostering trusted community partnerships (Horizon 1 and 2) and planning for alternative, resilient communication channels (Horizon 3), you can (to an extent...) safeguard your mission.

• Digital surveillance and data privacy: Heightened regulatory scrutiny on nonprofits could restrict data-sharing or communication. Investing in privacy-first tools and secure platforms (Horizon 2) could become essential.

• Funding trends:  Nonprofits and media outlets need to explore hybrid funding models to stay ahead of shifts in funding priority. Applying this across Horizon 2 can allow you to diversify revenue streams gradually.

🪁 PARALLEL PLAY 🪁

Because everyone deserves a little distraction now and again.

• Zine. Webby-winning cultural intel for the curious. Alternative explanations of our tech, media, and overlooked social shifts.

• If this entrepreneurship gig doesn't work out for me, I might get into quilting.

• There’s a new music video out from Preslav Literary School (that’s me!). It’s about my lost archive of cassette tapes.

🌊 WAVE GOODBYE 🌊

Thanks for reading!

A little about me: I've built, scaled, and sold organisations in the start-up, NGO, and corporate fields. I've raised over €30m in philanthropic funding (and recently €500k of impact investments). I’ve mentored pioneers, designed creator economy products, and coached folks on everything from membership strategy, to organisational structure, to writing books.

In general, I'm trying to make sure funding and resources for organisations of purpose are more evenly distributed.

To that end, I have a bunch of free forever products for nonprofits. You might consider downloading my Purpose & Profit Matrix, using my fundraising GPT, or getting hold of Fundraising HQ (my totally free database of intelligence on funders). I also post lots of free guides and vlogs over on YouTube.

If you want to support my work, I have a €99 fundraising course, which goes really deep on how to create a fundraising strategy (and allows me to continue putting out most of what I do for free).

Or, if you want to just tip me, feel free to pre-order a digital copy of my new ambient album. It's great for helping you to focus while writing funding applications. 😇

Take care,

Adam

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